Other Key Swing States

MICHIGAN

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/michigan/

MINNESOTA

NEVADA

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/nevada/
  • Likelihood of being the Tipping Point state?
  • Will there be a: Red Mirage, Blue Mirage, No Mirage?
    • Unclear — given that all voters are sent a mail ballot, and ballots accepted in NV until November 10, late arriving ballots could skew more blue but early on no severe shifts are expected
  • Mail Ballot Counting Speed: Fast or Slow or Moderate?
    • Moderate
      • Why?
        • Processing Date: Signature verification conducted upon receipt. Ballots are placed in a secured ballot box, unopened until they are delivered to the central counting board.
        • Counting Date: On Election Day. No results may be reported until after the polls close.
        • Quantity of 2016 Mail Ballots: 67,735
        • Accept Postmarked Ballots That Arrive After Election Day?
          • Yes, Nevada’s deadline for ballots is 5 p.m. on the seventh day after Election Day if postmarked by Election Day. Ballots with unclear postmarks must be received by 5 p.m. on the third day after Election Day. (NV Rev Stat § 293.317)
        • “Curing” Mail Ballots:
          • Local election officials shall notify voters of missing or mismatched signatures. (Nev. Rev. Stat. 293.325)
  • When are public officials predicting their ballots will be counted by?
    • Las Vegas Sun: “The final results, however, aren’t expected until “several days” after the election, according to the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office.”
    • NYT: “Officials said they did not know what share of votes would be reported by noon Wednesday.”
  • Analysis
    • Although some processing (signature verification) can occur before election day, the fact that the envelopes are still sealed on election day means that there is still a significant amount of work to be done in one day to count all of the ballots.
    • This year, Nevada sent out a mail ballot to every registered voter, but in 2016 the state only tallied 67,735 mail ballots. Therefore, the lack of experience and newfound reliance on absentee voting could lead to some delays
  • Recount: A defeated candidate may file a recount request with the relevant filing officer no later than 3 days after the canvass. The recount must commence within 5 days and must be completed within 5 days. The candidate must pay for the recount if the candidate does not prevail. (293.403; 405).
    • According to Slate: “The recount will begin within five days of being requested. The same people involved in the counting of ballots the first time will return to recount the ballots in the same way they originally did. As part of the recount, they will inspect both rejected and accepted ballots. The officials will have five days to complete the recount.”

GEORGIA

  • Likelihood of being the Tipping Point state?
  • Will there be a: Red Mirage, Blue Mirage, No Mirage?
    • Probably no significant mirages. Given that GA does not have a uniform standard for releasing election day votes or absentee votes first, and the relatively similar rates at which Georgians are voting early vs. on election day (see AJC poll below), there should be a relatively balanced stream of results
  • Mail Ballot Counting Speed: Fast or Slow or Moderate?
    • Moderate
      • Why?
        • Processing Date: Signature verification conducted upon receipt.
        • Counting Date: 7 a.m. on Election Day.
        • Quantity of 2016 Mail Ballots: 181,315
        • Accept Postmarked Ballots That Arrive After Election Day? No
        • “Curing” Mail Ballots:
          • If ballot is rejected, the voter is promptly notified of rejection. (Georgia Code § 21-2-386)
  • What Type of Ballots Will Be Counted First?
  • When are public officials predicting their ballots will be counted by?
  • Analysis
    • Although some processing (signature verification) can occur upon receipt, the fact that the count cannot begin until election day along with the low historical mail ballot count puts Georgia slightly in the Moderate category. Although Georgia is faster than some other slow states like Michigan and Minnesota, the lack of experience with high ballot counts and the inability to begin counting before election day creates some risk of late reporting.
    • Based on a poll by the Atlanta Journal Constitution (AJC):
      • Voters are choosing to vote early, absentee and on Election Day at very similar rates
      • 40% of Republicans vs. 33% of Democrats said they plan to cast their ballots during the early voting period
  • Recount: A candidate may request a recount (state funded) if the difference between the candidate and the winning candidate is not greater than 1 percent of the total votes cast for the office. The request must be made within two business days following certification of the results. (21-2-495)
    • According to Slate: “Georgia does not have an automatic recount, but if the margin is within 0.5 percent, a candidate can request one. The candidate must do so within two days of the certification of the results. Georgia is one of a few states where an election official may also order a recount if the official believes there was an error. Voters may also request recounts if they believe there is fraud.”

TEXAS

OHIO

  • Likelihood of being the Tipping Point state?
  • Will there be a: Red Mirage, Blue Mirage, No Mirage?
    • Ohio is tricky. First returns skew blue with that feature the early process absentee ballots. Then red with election day. And much later (see analysis below) the final absentee ballots. So you could have an initial blue mirage, followed by a red surge as the two main shifts in vote totals.
  • Mail Ballot Counting Speed: Fast or Slow or Moderate?
    • Moderate
      • Why?
        • Processing Date: Processing may begin before the time for counting ballots. Exact timing not specified.
        • Counting Date: Absentee ballots may be scanned prior to the election, but the count may not be disclosed prior to the closing of the polls.
        • Quantity of 2016 Mail Ballots: 1,122,894
        • Accept Postmarked Ballots That Arrive After Election Day?
          • Yes (must be postmarked the day before the election). (R.C. § 3509.05)
        • “Curing” Mail Ballots:
  • When are public officials predicting their ballots will be counted by?
    • Ohio officials are claiming that “Ballots cast before Election Day will be reported by 8 p.m., . . . They will be followed by those cast in-person or arriving on Election Day. After election night, no more results will be released until final certification, which must be completed by Nov. 28. No predictions were provided for the share of results reported by Wednesday.”
  • Analysis
    • It’s very tough to predict how fast Ohio will be able to count votes on Election Night. The fact that OH’s election administrators have prior experience handling large numbers of the absentee ballots and the fact that counting can begin at some point before election day are encouraging signs. Per FiveThirtyEIght’s analysis, there will be a late batch of absentee ballots that will likely favor Biden that won’t be counted until Nov. 14-18 so if its a very tight race, this is something to keep an eye on.