PENNSYLVANIA
General State Info
- Total # of Delegates: 20
- Total Voting Eligible Population: 9,781,976
- Governor: Democrat
- State House: Republican
- State Senate: Republican
State of the Race
RCP Polling Average (10/29-11/2): Biden 48.7% – Trump 47.5%
Cook Political Report Rating: Lean Democrat
FiveThirtyEight Forecast (11/3): Biden is “favored” to win Pennsylvania
Early Voting Key Facts
- Early Voting Options: Early Voting (In Person Absentee), Absentee by Mail
- Early Voting Dates:
- Absentee/Mail Ballot Processing Laws
- Processing: 7 am Election Day.
- Counting: 7 am Election Day
- Deadline to Receive Absentee/Mailed Ballots: Election Day (by 8 p.m.)
- Accept Postmarked Ballots that Arrive After Election Day?: Yes, by Nov. 6. Reporting will vary by county.
- Absentee/Mail Ballot Signature Requirement: Cannot invalidated ballot based on signature mismatch
- The Pennsylvania Department of State released guidance in September that stated: “if the return envelope is signed and the county board is satisfied that the declaration is sufficient, the mail-in or absentee ballot should be approved for canvassing unless challenged in accordance with the Pennsylvania Election Code”
- After a Republican challenge to this made it to the state supreme court, “The Pennsylvania state Supreme Court ruled [on 10/23] that ballots in the state cannot be rejected because of signature comparisons, backing up guidance issued“.
- The Pennsylvania Department of State released guidance in September that stated: “if the return envelope is signed and the county board is satisfied that the declaration is sufficient, the mail-in or absentee ballot should be approved for canvassing unless challenged in accordance with the Pennsylvania Election Code”
- “Curing” Mail Ballots: Pennsylvania is not one of the 18 states which has a curing statute.
- The PA Department of State has offered general guidelines on how to handle ballots with errors, but in practice, counties have considerable discretion to chart their own course.
- As a result, some counties will be aggressive in contacting voters who have sent in potentially invalid ballots, while others will not provide any notice. For more details on this, see here.
- The PA Department of State has offered general guidelines on how to handle ballots with errors, but in practice, counties have considerable discretion to chart their own course.
- Secrecy Envelope Requirement: PA also requires that by mail voters place their ballot inside of a “secrecy envelope” — if the voter does not put their ballot in the secrecy envelope, their vote will not count.
- Vox provided a great explanation of this controversial policy:
- “Once you fill out the ballot itself, you must place it inside the provided secrecy envelope, which contains no information about your identity. Then you put the sealed secrecy envelope inside a different postage-paid addressed return envelope, on which you have to sign your name and write your address. If you forget the secrecy envelope — simply dropping your ballot in the ordinary return envelope — your ballot will be deemed a “naked ballot.” And, according to a recent Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling, election officials will have to throw it out. The reason for the secrecy envelope, in theory, is to preserve the secret ballot and to prevent potential fraud. That is: once election officials receive the mail-in ballot, they use the outer envelope to verify that the person voting is registered and hasn’t already voted, without being able to see who the vote is for. Only later will the secrecy envelope actually be opened and counted. But the risk is that if the rule is implemented very strictly, many voters’ non-fraudulent ballots will be thrown out on what’s essentially a technicality, simply because they misunderstood the rules.”
- Vox provided a great explanation of this controversial policy:
- RECOUNT?: Automatically triggered if margin is 0.5% or less. The recount must take place by the third Wednesday following the election and must be completed by the following Tuesday. (§3154(e))
- If the race is not within 0.5% , voters can request a recount — according to Slate:
- “A signed petition from three voters alleging fraud or error can prompt a recount, without having to cite any specific cases or evidence of fraud. The petition would need to be filed within five days of the election result. For the automatic recounts, the task will need to be completed within three weeks of the election. But for those alleging fraud or error, there is no official deadline.”
- “While the campaign cannot directly demand a recount, candidates can appeal the officials’ decision regarding whether to recount the votes or not to the courts.If a recount is approved, officials will compare the numbers of ballots returned and processed, and count the votes again using the same methods as in the first count. If there appears to be no evidence of fraud and the election outcome is unchanged in any significant way, the candidate will have to foot the bill for the recount. The results would need to be submitted within three weeks.”
- If the race is not within 0.5% , voters can request a recount — according to Slate:
Early Vote & General FAQ
- Likelihood Pennsylvania is the “tipping point state” in the 2020 election?
- According to FiveThirtyEight’s model, there is a 36.5% chance PA swings the election — far and away the highest odds of any state (as of 11/3)
- How has Pennsylvania voted in recent Presidential Elections?
- Donald Trump was the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since George H. W. Bush in 1988.
- What happened in the 2016 Presidential Election?
- Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D): 48.17% – 47.46%
- Does it take longer to process mail-in ballots compared to in-person ballots (via early voting or on election day)?
- Yes. Mail-in ballots will certainly take longer to process and count than in-person ballots in Pennsylvania.
- Is Pennsylvania well-equipped to handle the surge in mail-in ballots for the upcoming election?
- No. Pennsylvania is unaccustomed to this quantity of mail-in ballots, and their state statutes are not conducive to efficient counting and processing.
- What are some plausible, non-malicious voting related causes of delay that might prevent Pennsylvania from calling the race on election night?
- PA’s late start on processing means that they have won’t have enough time to count all their votes on November 3rd.
- What are key political and elections officials/experts saying about their expectations for election night?
- Pennsylvania Secretary of State, Kathy Boockvar: “By Friday [November 6th] , I expect the overwhelming majority of ballots will be counted in Pennsylvania”.
- Boockvar has dismissed the notion that PA could take weeks to count its ballots: “When people are talking about weeks, I don’t think you’re going to see that in Pennsylvania at all. I think the overwhelming majority of ballots will be counted by the weekend, honestly, and maybe even significantly sooner”
- She has also publicly discussed taking measures to mitigate the severity of a red mirage effect: “[Boockvar] will call on counties to routinely report their mail-in ballot tallies instead of all at once. This should prevent a jarring swing in results that could erode voter confidence, she said. Significantly more Democratic voters are registered to vote by mail across Pennsylvania, which could cause a potential Republican lead to suddenly vanish if mail-in ballots are reported all at once“
- Boockvar has dismissed the notion that PA could take weeks to count its ballots: “When people are talking about weeks, I don’t think you’re going to see that in Pennsylvania at all. I think the overwhelming majority of ballots will be counted by the weekend, honestly, and maybe even significantly sooner”
- Pennsylvania Secretary of State, Kathy Boockvar: “By Friday [November 6th] , I expect the overwhelming majority of ballots will be counted in Pennsylvania”.
Election Night Questions
- What ballots will be counted first?
- According to CNN: “Each county has a different plan for how to process mail-in ballots, which are expected to hit record numbers as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic“
- PA County Examples:
- Erie: Will start counting in-person election day votes at 8pm EST; will tabulate absentee votes at 11pm EST and continue count until 2am EST and then resume on November 4th
- RED MIRAGE related rationale for this method: “Carl Anderson III, the chair of the Erie Board of Elections, said there’s a concern if the mail-in ballots are reported first, the results ‘out of the gate could look pretty skewed,” because those votes were expected to be heavily Democratic, based on ballots requested, and the county was trying to mitigate that effect.“
- Cumberland: Will start releasing election day results at 8pm EST, but will NOT begin counting mail ballots until next morning
- Samantha Krepps, a spokeswoman for Cumberland county told CNN: “On Election Day we will report the poll numbers, but we have three days to start the canvassing of the mail-in ballot. So, we took the opportunity to focus our attention on the election at the polls and then we will switch gears the next day,” Krepps told CNN. “It’s just a matter of getting the job done and we are focusing our attention on the polls because they are the most important thing on Election Day.”
- Luzerne: in-person election day votes count should be completed on Nov. 3 but only “some” mail ballots will be counted on election day
- Philadelphia: Will begin process of counting ALL votes (both mail and in person election day) throughout the entire day on Nov. 3
- Bucks County: Mail ballots will be processed starting at 7am and some will be featured in results that will start to be released around 10pm EST on election night
- Erie: Will start counting in-person election day votes at 8pm EST; will tabulate absentee votes at 11pm EST and continue count until 2am EST and then resume on November 4th
- PA County Examples:
- According to CNN: “Each county has a different plan for how to process mail-in ballots, which are expected to hit record numbers as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic“
- Will there be a: Red Mirage, Blue Mirage, No Mirage?
- RED MIRAGE.
- For an in-depth description of the severity of PA’s red mirage/”blue shift” see FiveThirtyEight’s analysis here.
- RED MIRAGE.
- Who will be ahead during the first return(s) on election night? Why?
- President Trump will almost certainly be ahead during the first returns on election night. Despite optimistic predictions from election officials, we project that Pennsylvania will be one of the slowest states in terms of processing and tallying mail-in ballots and certainly will not have them complete by election night.
- Who will get more mail-in votes?
- We project Vice President Biden to lead the mail-in voting numbers by a wide margin.
- Who will get more votes on election day?
- We project President Trump to lead in the in-person Election Day numbers
- Will Pennsylvania be able to call the race on election night?
- Unless the in-person votes are an incredible landslide (which is unlikely), Pennsylvania will not be able to call the race on election night.
Mail Ballot Requests by Party Registration
Party | Count | Percent |
---|---|---|
Democrats | 1,947,267 | 62.8 |
Republicans | 788,445 | 25.4 |
Minor | 25,534 | 0.8 |
No Party Affiliation | 337,701 | 10.9 |
TOTAL | 3,098,947 | 100.0 |
Mail Ballots Returned by Party Registration
Party | Count | Percent |
---|---|---|
Democrats | 1,641,825 | 65.5 |
Republicans | 586,336 | 23.4 |
Minor | 18,349 | 0.7 |
No Party Affiliation | 260,047 | 10.4 |
TOTAL | 2,506,557 | 100.0 |
Mail Ballots Returned by Age
Age | Returned Ballots | Freq. Distribution | Requested Ballots | Return Rate |
---|---|---|---|---|
18 to 24 | 183,956 | 7.3 | 261,812 | 70.3 |
25 to 34 | 303,604 | 12.1 | 410,403 | 74.0 |
35 to 44 | 293,922 | 11.7 | 380,252 | 77.3 |
45 and 55 | 300,483 | 12.0 | 379,801 | 79.1 |
56 and 65 | 474,407 | 18.9 | 570,686 | 83.1 |
66 and up | 950,098 | 37.9 | 1,095,496 | 86.7 |
TOTAL | 2,506,557 | 100.0 | 3,098,947 | 80.9 |